Global coffee market conditions in January 2026 remained firm, with prices supported by tight supply fundamentals, weather uncertainty in key producing regions and sustained demand for robusta across futures and physical markets.
Robusta prices stayed elevated early in January as limited export availability from Vietnam, the world’s largest robusta producer, continued to underpin the market. Traders said farmer selling remained cautious after a volatile 2025 season marked by drought stress and rising production costs.
Supply Tightens as Robusta Prices Stay Firm
Global robusta supply remained constrained, with exchange-certified stocks hovering near historically low levels. Roasters continued to favor robusta-heavy blends to manage costs, reinforcing robusta’s growing structural role in global coffee consumption.
Vietnam Coffee Exports Remain Constrained
Vietnam coffee exports were slower than usual at the start of 2026 as growers paced sales, anticipating further price upside. Although the 2025/26 crop is expected to recover modestly, output growth remains capped by lingering moisture deficits in parts of the Central Highlands and higher input expenses.
Arabica Outlook Hinges on Brazil Weather
Arabica markets were also supported, with attention focused on Brazil’s weather outlook ahead of key crop development stages. While Brazil’s supply prospects for 2026 remain broadly stable, traders noted heightened price sensitivity to rainfall forecasts due to tight global inventories.
Demand, Regulation and Market Outlook for Q1 2026
Demand fundamentals remained resilient, particularly from Europe and Asia, where buying interest for instant and soluble coffee stayed steady. At the same time, exporters adjusted supply chains ahead of stricter sustainability and traceability rules for coffee entering the European Union.
Looking ahead, analysts expect the global coffee market to remain volatile through the first quarter of 2026, with supply signals from Vietnam and Brazil continuing to play a decisive role in price direction.
