The coffee market has recently experienced a significant downturn. Specifically, around June 21, 2025, both Robusta and Arabica coffee prices saw sharp declines. Some reports indicate that prices have hit bottom, with the market share of foreign enterprises exceeding 40% for the first time.
However, despite this downward trend, there are also discussions and forecasts about a potential price recovery in the future. Some suggest that US Coffee C Futures could rebound to the 320-330 range. Current technical analyses on TradingView indicate a “sell” trend for both Robusta and Arabica futures contracts, but it’s important to remember that market conditions are constantly changing.
Factors Influencing the Market
- Supply and Demand: Despite falling prices, retail coffee consumption is still considered stable, and the rise of private labels suggests continued strong demand for coffee beans. However, some large roasters are facing pushback from customers regarding price increases, and demand appears to be slowing in certain markets.
- Weather and Climate: Adverse weather conditions are a critical factor affecting production. Droughts and inconsistent rainfall due to climate change have reduced production capacity in major coffee-growing regions like Brazil. Additionally, heavy rains have also been reported to be damaging coffee crops.
- Production Forecasts (USDA Report): The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasts a significant increase in global coffee production for the 2025/26 crop year (up 4.3 million bags to a record 178.7 million bags). This growth is primarily attributed to a recovery in output from Vietnam and Indonesia, along with record production in Ethiopia. Global coffee exports are also projected to rise. However, some analysts question the accuracy of USDA data, particularly regarding the substantial increases in Ethiopia and Vietnam.
- Speculative Sentiment: The Commitments of Traders (COT) report on May 20, 2025, indicates a cooling of speculative sentiment in the coffee market, with speculators closing their long positions.
- Other Factors: Low trading volumes on certain days, control of the market by speculators through options and arbitrage, and the impact of central bank money printing due to COVID-19 on currency depreciation and coffee prices have also been mentioned. Furthermore, US coffee import tariffs are increasing costs for roasters, and rising coffee trading costs have exacerbated record price increases.
Coffee Prices by Type
- US Coffee C Futures (Arabica): Current prices hover around 303.75 USX/LBR, having recently seen sharp declines.
- Robusta Coffee (London): Current prices are approximately 3,593.00 USD, also showing a recent downward trend. Brazil’s 2025 Robusta harvest is in full swing and may exceed initial estimates.
- Arabica Coffee Futures (BMFBOVESPA): Current prices are around 372.45 USD / 60KGM, also registering recent declines.
