Vietnam’s Coffee Export Market Booming: Great Potential or New Challenges?

Vietnam’s coffee export market in 2025 has shown great potential, as demonstrated by its rapid growth in the first two months of the year. Many farmers are holding onto their coffee stock, waiting for prices to rise further due to Brazil’s weather-affected coffee production. Will coffee prices keep rising? What do experts say about this trend?

A Record-Breaking Start to 2025

In just the first two months of 2025, Vietnam’s coffee export market has shown many positive signs because it reached $1.58 billion, with 284,000 tons shipped. Although export volume dropped by 28.4% compared to the same period in 2024, export value increased impressively by 26.2%, thanks to higher prices.

*Vietnam coffee export market is full of potential*

The average export price over the past two months hit a record $5,574.5 per ton, up 76.3% compared to the 2024 season. Notably, in February alone, Vietnam exported over 193,000 tons, generating $1.08 billion, marking the first time coffee exports surpassed $1 billion in a single month. The price of Robusta coffee even peaked at $5,821 per ton on the London market on February 13.

This success is partially attributed to high coffee prices and the significant contribution of FDI (Foreign Direct Investment) enterprises. These companies accounted for 27% of total export volume and 28% of green coffee beans export value while dominating 86% of processed coffee exports, leading this segment.

Vietnam’s main coffee export markets remain Germany, Italy, and Japan, with market shares of 16.6%, 9.4%, and 8.2%, respectively. Compared to the same period in 2024, export value to these three countries also surged by 53%, 5.6%, and 10.4%, respectively.

Experts’ Insights on Vietnam’s Coffee Export Market

According to Deputy Minister of Agriculture and Environment, Phung Duc Tien, the strong export value in the first two months is a promising sign, highlighting the industry’s potential. With the current growth rate, Vietnam’s coffee export market could reach $6 billion in 2025.

Additionally, the US Department of Agriculture predicts that global coffee consumption will increase by 5.1 million bags in the 2024-2025 season. With improved supply, Vietnam’s coffee production is expected to grow by 1.8 million bags, reaching 24.4 million bags.

According to VCM experts, coffee prices may continue to rise until July when Brazil begins its next harvest. Moreover, La Niña is expected to replace El Niño in Brazil in 2025, significantly impacting coffee-growing regions. This could lead to a decline in the 2025-2026 coffee crop, further reinforcing Vietnam’s position in the global coffee market.

La Niña is a phenomenon caused by the movement of trade winds, leading to lower sea surface temperatures in the eastern and central Pacific while warming the western Pacific. This phenomenon can cause increased rainfall, storms, and flooding, significantly affecting agricultural production.

What Should Vietnamese Coffee Exporters Do Next?

*Domestic enterprises must expanding their markets to remain competitive and drive stronger growth*

According to VCM experts, domestic enterprises must focus on enhancing product quality, investing in processing technology, and expanding their markets to remain competitive and drive stronger growth. Additionally, companies should be more cautious when entering long-term sales contracts to minimize risks.

In the near future, foreign investors may turn to Vietnam to source coffee, potentially pushing prices even higher.

Vietnam’s coffee export market is at a turning point. Will businesses seize the opportunity to thrive, or will challenges ahead hinder growth? Only time will tell.